The New Portfolio Type - Rental Houses

Monday, October 7, 2013

October 7, 2013 - Post No. 30 - This week I am revisiting a subject I discussed about 6 months ago - companies purchasing huge numbers of houses to rent as a new investment vehicle.

In parts of Europe, especially Germany, there are companies that own literally tens of thousands of rental homes. This has been a successful investment for many decades. Will it be here in the USA? My opinion is a resounding No.

The most important reason I do not think this will prove to be a profitable investment is supply and demand. I always go back to supply and demand as the market cannot get away from its pull. Prices can disengage from the reality of value, - as in 2004-2007 and, once again today, for some property types and markets - but sooner or later the two will merge and result in an equilibrium market.

As I have stated for many years, just because a private equity firm or REIT buys a house, that does not create demand for it. Only an increase in population/households creates demand for housing. Granted demolition of existing units can help by reducing supply.
To use some numbers....Let's say in 2006 when the bubble burst and prices started to crumble we had a market with 100,000 occupied households (owners and renters) and 150,000 houses of inventory. Obviously there was a huge vacancy of spec units and even existing houses (due to foreclosures). Now 7 years later let's assume the number of occupied households has grown by about 1% per year. Let's round this up and say there are now 110,000 occupied households (again owners and renters - albeit today the proportion has probably changed drastically).

Instead of 50,000 vacant homes, we only have 40,000 vacant homes. The norm would probably be 5,000 to 10,000 vacant homes. So a company comes along and buys 1,000 homes...make it 10,000 homes. Is there suddenly a demand for these homes? No. Out of the 150,000 homes there is a demand to occupy 110,000 homes. Can this company steal renters away from other rented homes? Possibly. But, if the other rented homes are at market and the new big company wants a market return, where is the incentive for a family to just switch homes? Especially considering many of the excess homes from the bubble era were built in marginal locations with possibly limited services (e.g. schools, churches, medical offices).

Chris Meyer, the author of Capital and Crisis, recently cited the comments of Camden Property Trust (CPT) CEO Keith Oden. Camden is a large apartment REIT, but Oden said on his company's earnings call that his company had tried to pencil out a single-family portfolio.

His team couldn't make sense of the numbers. For instance, he said developers are modeling $500 for capital expenditures. "That's just astonishing," he said. "The number could be five times that by the time you rip the carpet out and replace the sheetrock." He considers the capex numbers "silly."

Legendary property investor Sam Zell called managing a pool of houses "a hell of an operation to run," and made the point that no one has ever successfully made such an investment work.

Professor Christopher Leinberger echoes Zell's concerns. "You can cobble something together," but many units "are going to fall through the cracks as far as day-to-day management attention is concerned."

Unlike buying a completed and fully leased apartment project, these REITs are acquiring properties so fast their vacancy rates are around 50 percent. This has some investors asking hard questions. "You don't see REITs in any other sector coming public when they're not fully occupied," Jim Wilson, of JMP Securities, told the Wall Street Journal. "So the investors are saying, 'Are you actually getting these things leased?'"

The angle that purchasers are promoting is that if they don’t achieve the expected annual rate of return (which I have seen is around 6%), they will make it up on price appreciation. Some investors contend home prices are as much as 20% below where they should be.

As Case-Shiller and other indices show, home prices only came down to touch their long-term trend in this Depression. They are now back to being over-valued. I would contend the odds are much greater that real prices (adjusted for inflation) will decline by 20% before they increase by 20%. We can check back in 3 to 5 years and see how this played out.

George R. Mann, CRE, FRICS, MAI

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Signed contracts to find existing family homes were flat for ones month, all the way up just 0. step 2 percent because of October, as per the National Acquaintance of Realtors' seasonally regulated monthly list of possible home marketing.
The list was 0. 8 percent compared to November 2016, the pioneer annual secure since keep going June. Pending marketing are a particular indicator from future enclosed sales next two a long time.
Sales from existing not to mention newly produced homes found slowed within summer on the web . turned enormously higher through October not to mention November, surprising the experts who go on to point in the low supply of homes for sale as some drag available to buy.
The housing market is closing all four on some stronger word than earlier come early july, backed from solid profession creation not to mention an economy with which has kicked towards a higher apparel, believed Lawrence Yun, chief economist for ones NAR.
But, new buyers coming into the market have realized out fast that his or her's options are actually limited not to mention competition might be robust. Realtors assert many would-be people from earlier the year 2010,
Home prices go on to show effective gains, accelerating because of earlier in your year owing to high call for. The supply of homes for sale fell towards just 3. check out months' valued at in Nov, the lowest considering that NAR launched tracking furnish in 1999.
Deals were all the way up 6. step 2 percent country wide in Oct, according in the S&P CoreLogic Claim Shiller Residential Price List. That was basically an acceleration from September. Higher deals are wounding demand.
Some demand list from Redfin, a huge estate broker, fell through November, after developing through much of the fast fall. Typically the index precautions requests for the purpose of home vacations, offers not to mention signed business deals.
Three numerous years of affordable inventory might be taking her toll concerning buyer demand in relation to tour and give activity, inches said Redfin major economist Nela Richardson. "People still need it homes, especially previously mortgage low interest rates increase not to mention prices rise especially. But furthermore there just might not be enough homes for sale, especially by lower- towards mid-level deals. "
In the region of 60 enrollees attend Åland’s one university, of which welcomes enrollees from other half universities for the duration of Europe. Cost a lot courses are taught through Swedish, some will be available through English.
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The 90 years islands define the Azores are in fact the peaks of examples of the world's tallest mountains, reaching because of deep beneath the Atlantic. Typically the once-uninhabited, volcanic island chain now hosts several thousand tourists per year who flock in the islands for the purpose of sun, timeless sand and verdant mountain peak scenery.
There are a lot stories to share of typically the archipelago’s loveliness, of fishermen or shepherds, but particularly there is one which was told by using a holidaymaker. Being foreign partners was silently contemplating the Caldeira das Sete Cidades right after they were disturbed by his or her's six-year-old child ,, who wanted to know them: ‘Is this unique God’s residential? ’
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who don't participate in your work. “We are generally trying to help with making [interpretations] on the subject of populations dependant upon one particular from who population, ” this lady says, but “one person in any population doesn’t represent the total genetic makeup of this group the slightest bit. It’s problematical, but there’s very much territory available on the market that they are explored.
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So pretty much never do we tend to get a chance to begin towards explore instead, what we thought we tend to knew with the help of better the informatioin needed for populations as well as perhaps some insights into circulation, migration, not to mention overall version, ” the guy says.
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