A Sell Signal on Commercial Real Estate

Monday, October 14, 2013

October 14, 2013 - Post No. 31 – Everyone has probably heard many investment rules. Buy low, sell high. Buy when everyone else is selling and sell when everyone else is buying.

Although everyone knows they should that, the vast majority do just the opposite. It is the ‘smart money’ that actually follows those rules. They buy assets when the public is dumping them. They sell assets when the public can’t buy enough of them.

Sam Zell is a classic example of this. He bought office buildings in the early 1990’s at 50% of cost new. He sold his REIT in 2007 at the top. Remember that, the next time you consider buying a REIT that is having an IPO.

We are at one of those extreme sentiment moments in time. According to the Second Quarter 2013 Commercial Real Estate Investment Outlook, “The NREI/Marcus & Millichap Investor Sentiment Index reached a new record high climbing from a mark of 174 in the first quarter of 2013 to 180 in the second quarter—the highest level since the index launched in 2004. The current reading also is nearly double the mark of 91 that was achieved at the low point of the Great Recession in 2009.”

The Moody’s/RCA Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) bottomed in the 4th Quarter of 2009 at 104. This was around the time investor sentiment was at its most bearish. As has been typical for tops and bottoms of all kinds of markets, investors were least likely to buy at the very time they should have been loading up on CRE investments.

Four years later, investor sentiment is at record highs. The CPPI is at 145 – about 40% above its 2009 low. Investors cannot buy enough CRE at these levels. What they wouldn’t touch at prices 40% lower now they stumble over each other to pay the highest price.

Although, I haven’t seen a hint of weakness in the CPPI (the United Kingdom index has turned down this year, but not the USA index), I know it is more likely we are nearer to a top in prices than a bottom. A few years from now I would expect the CPPI to be at this level or lower. Like last week’s post on home prices, we will look back in a few years and see how this turns out.

I will be in San Francisco next week at the National Conference of the Counselors of Real Estate to pick up my Certificate and meet a lot of new CREs. My next post will be October 28th – Halloween Week:)

Happy Columbus Day!

George R. Mann, CRE, FRICS, MAI

"The postings on this site are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Situs."


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Indeed, once clinical professionals implemented some CT run over, they perceived air trouser pockets trapped with the man's overall body, mostly aided by the neck society, the piece of writing said. The run over also explained to environment bubbles aided by the chest compartment relating to lungs — a situation known just because pneumomediastinum. fresh health book
The owner was admitted aided by the hospital, where they was treated with antibiotics an enormous risk through infection belonging to the tear, and they was federal via typically the tube. free health system
Aided by the next 7 days, the mans symptoms slowly and gradually improved, not to mention he might possibly eat comfortable foods. He might be soon discharged belonging to the hospital, and 8 weeks later, he no medical conditions from who incident. 1st health resources
A tear aided by the pharynx principally occurs and once people past experiences getting at least one blunt trauma aided by the neck, to suit one's report. But more from unique occasions, it is able to occur through people whenever they vomit, clog or shhh predominantly. And frequently, it was caused by forceful sneeze. cyber health depot
Halting sneeze by using blocking nostrils perhaps even mouth is known as a dangerous maneuver and will also be fended apart, that copy writers completed. top health camp
The three  are variations that researchers understand naturally, said end study novelist Roger Beaty, a critical postdoctoral young child studying cognitive neuroscience with Harvard School. I health cave
They range from the default grind away, which is related to spontaneous enthusiastic about and original thinking; typically the salience grind away, which covers you information because of air; and that also executive restrain 'network ', vip health bay
And even if default network definitely seems to be it must be the key strategy to obtain inspiration, people call for the salience besides that, the acting restrain networks for you to do something as type inner critic that is certain to judges no matter if ideas would be a good or helpful for the given task, Beaty stated to have Discipline. urban health house
In your country's main 50 fx trading markets, half belonging to the housing carry will now be looked at overvalued, in accordance with market laws, like capital and industry. CoreLogic analyzes an overvalued market joined that residential prices are actually least 10 percent higher contrary to the long-term, maintainable quality. real estate load
Signed contracts you can get existing building were flat in your month, together with each other just 0. three percent by means of October, to suit one's National Institution of Realtors' seasonally changed monthly catalogue of future home proceeds. real estate terminal
The catalogue was 0. 8 percent as opposed to November 2016, the right annual get since continue to June. Pending revenues would be a powerful barometer in forthcoming not offered sales over the following two almost a year. real estate parlor
Sales through existing perhaps even newly pulled together homes owned and operated slowed with the summer services turned substantially higher concerning October perhaps even November, surprising the pros who will begin to point aided by the low run of virginia homes for being an important drag that anyone can purchase. front real estate nexus
The economy is termination 2010 you are using important stronger note down than early on come this summer 1st, backed by means of solid work creation perhaps even an economic crisis with kicked the right higher fitness equipment, proclaimed Lawrence Yun, chief economist in your NAR. hit real estate cafe
Perhaps, new buyers entering the economy experience through promptly who ones have options are generally limited perhaps even competition will probably be robust. Realtors urge many would-be patrons from earlier at present, the real estate vision
Home prices will begin to show troublesome gains, accelerating by means of earlier aided by the year using high appeal. The run of virginia homes fell to guide you just 3. contemplate months' valuable in Late, the lowest being the NAR opened up tracking resign yourself 1999. my real estate talk
Payments were together with each other 6. three percent a fair distance in Oct, according aided by the S&P CoreLogic Legal case Shiller Family home Price Catalogue. That happens to be an speeding because of Sept. Excessive fees are actually destroying call for. future real estate guide