Appraisers Optimistic on Future

Friday, September 27, 2013

In a recent survey conducted by the Appraisal Institute, the majority of real estate appraisers said they were optimistic about their future and that of the profession.

The 2013 Real Estate Appraisal Outlook found that demand for appraisal services has increased and that local markets were stronger than a year ago. However, while responses were generally positive when it came to overall business, the potential for training new professionals was slightly behind, with less than one-fifth of those surveyed saying they planned to add trainee appraisers to their staff.

For the profession to truly thrive, this improved-yet-cautious optimism must reach appraiser hiring in order to ensure a healthy future for the profession.

Future Optimism

Having faced a challenging real estate market in recent years, the profession is now taking a positive turn, with an overwhelming majority of appraisers feeling positive about the future.

More than three-fourths of U.S. real estate appraisers are very or somewhat positive about the demand for their services over the next one to two years, according to the Appraisal Institute survey conducted earlier this year. Additionally, 80 percent of residential appraisers and 78 percent of commercial appraisers said they are upbeat about their future.

This upbeat outlook may be due in part to increased business and growth opportunities over the past year. According to the survey, 95 percent of residential appraisers and 49 percent of commercial appraisers said there is currently more demand for their services than a year ago. What's more, 32 percent of residential appraisers and 45 percent of commercial appraisers expect an increasing demand for their services during the next one to two years.

The optimism doesn't end there:

  • Eighty-four percent of residential appraisers and 46 percent of commercial appraisers said their local real estate market is strong.
  • Eighty-six percent of residential appraisers and 55 percent of commercial appraisers said they saw a strong demand for their services.

Because real estate trends are typically local in nature, it's a positive sign for the nation's economy as a whole that appraisers around the country reported increased demand for their services.

The Trainee Disconnect

Although appraisers' optimism in their markets and personal careers has improved, hiring of trainee appraisers has yet to catch up and will remain weak for the next one to two years, survey findings show.

It's unfortunate that too many appraisers apparently fail to appreciate the advantages of hiring trainees. At Borges & Borges Real Estate Advisors, my wife and business partner, LaVonne Borges, SRA, and I understand the benefits to an appraisal company's business. In fact, we have a future trainee taking his first Appraisal Institute education classes this month.

But only 21 percent of commercial appraisers said they would add full-time trainees, and just 9 percent of residential appraisers said they plan to do so. Commercial appraisers account for less than one-third of practicing U.S. appraisers.

According to the survey, 93 percent of the residential appraisers who employ trainees employ one to three; only 7 percent employ four or more. Comparatively, 21 percent of commercial appraisers who retain trainees employ four or more.

While trainee hiring may not be expanding, it is at least remaining steady, with 59 percent of commercial appraisers and 67 percent of residential appraisers saying the number of trainees retained in the next one to two years would not change.

Forty-nine percent of commercial appraisers and 29 percent of residential appraisers said they employed one or more full-time appraiser trainees in the past 12 months. The overwhelming majority – 75 percent of residential appraisers and 80 percent of commercial appraisers – said the number of trainees they retained in the past 12 months did not change. Meanwhile, 14 percent of commercial appraisers and only 5 percent of residential appraisers said the number of trainees retained increased over the past 12 months.

More than half of all commercial appraisers and more than two-thirds of residential appraisers surveyed said the number of trainees retained in the next one to two years would not change. Twenty percent of commercial appraisers said they would decrease or were not sure how the number of trainees would change, and 24 percent of residential appraisers were of the same opinion.

Recruiting the next generation of appraisers must remain a priority for the valuation profession. With more than half of appraisers approaching retirement age, the profession can't afford not to do so. The Appraisal Institute continues to enhance partnerships with six universities to offer credits toward an MAI designation, and encourages mentorship opportunities for up-and-coming appraisers.

Bridging the Gap

Veteran appraisers must harness that optimism for the future while truly considering the next generation of the valuation profession, and hiring trainee appraisers is crucial to doing so. In addition, young professionals, and those new to an appraisal career, should not be discouraged, as there are opportunities for future growth.

The Appraisal Institute survey asked appraisers to indicate areas of potential growth in the next one to two years. Overall, appraisers anticipate continued growth in mortgage lending appraisals as the real estate market recovery continues. This should provide some encouragement, as this represents the primary type of valuation service for a vast majority of real estate appraisers.

Appraisers also anticipate continued growth in specialized areas of consulting such as valuation analysis in support of litigation, marketability studies and market studies.

The online survey polled 591 real estate valuation professionals from May 31-June 17, 2013, and had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

Have any comments or would you like to submit content of your own? Email comments@appraisalbuzz.com

Comments

Surveys being what they are, I checked the S.C. Appraisal Board web site and found that only 6.25% of appraisers have a trainee. A far cry from the numbers in the survey. It does appear that the number of trainees will increase this year. Commercial appraisers should have an opportunity to use them to their advantage. But in my personal experience within residential, we do not have any AMCs , Banks or Mortgage Companies that allows a trainee to do any work on their reports (whether signed or not). So I agree, appraisers need to be optimistic. With trainees out, the profession made up of mostly older men and even busy appraisers not making enough money, it won't take long before that Wonderful (not dreaded) shortage is going to push fees up to where they should statistically be. When the banks can't get a report on time at a cut rate fee they will begin to allow trainees back in. Looking forward to $500 minimum 1004 fees. And that is low considering the industry has instituted a death penalty for a single mistake. One appraisal sent to the Board will cause you to be dropped by your clients and you are out of business. Do you think a loan officer is fired for making one bad loan? You should be richly rewarded for operating under such a high risk system.

I would love to be optimistic but I'm on the AMC treadmill hoping to be the first one to grab the broadcast email when an appraisal order comes in. Local lenders have enough appraisers so you have to wait for one to die and be in the right place at the right time. In addition, AMC are now hiring staff appraisers which cuts down on potential work to the independents. Optimistic??? Not on your life.

First, thank you to the Appraisal Institute for conducting the survey. Hard data about our small profession is sometimes lacking, leading to a surplus of speculative opinion.

My take away from the survey is that commercial appraisers are doing reasonably well, at least for now. Residential appraisers, however, still have significant problems as evidenced by the widespread disinterest (lack of demand) for new trainees. Many years ago I was involved in a discussion with some local brokers about the local demand for more appraisers. There was consensus that we needed more local appraisers who would be excellent appraisers, but with lower fees and faster turn times. Those types of new appraisers would have plenty of work! Today, similarly, AMCs seem to be agreed that there is (or soon will be) a shortage of excellent appraisers who are also fast and cheap. The problem is that the AMCs have proven that they can get/compel existing appraisers to work fast and cheap, but so far they haven't figured out how to entice new entrants. What AMCs and some others therefore consider to be problem may simply be right sizing - the rebalancing of supply and demand.

For future surveys an interesting question to ask is: " How strongly you would recommend your job to your son or daughter thinking of a career choice?" I suspect that would capture the perceived desirability of the jobs appraisers currently hold, and it would be most interesting to see how the answers would vary in response to future conditions.

The system does not work for trainees. I train someone for two years and then they leave and start their own business. They have to lower the qualifications if they want to attract more people. Make it harder to be certified and own and operate your own business, but easier to be licensed.

Can some one please explain to me how AMC (third parties) are able to have staff appraisers. Doesn't that make them an appraisal company? I have appraisers and I call myself and AMC??

I recently sat through a webinar hosted by McKissock. My biggest complaint would be that the presentation assumed most appraisers are part of large firms that have secretaries, researchers, and staff appraisers. in reality most residential appraisers are 1 or 2 man/woman businesses without the volume or fees to take on trainees. And low fees being the elephant in the room.

My how time changes everything. I would love to see a new survey.

I think at this point appraisers are really tired of all the ups and downs in the industry, government intervention and the recent consumer scare with rising interest rates.

I am optomistic in general, so I HOPE things get better and people start doing refinances again soon. But with seasonal slow downs that usually start around Thanksgiving and end in March, that is a long haul.

As AMCs started hiring masses of staff appraisers, I started doing some major marketing for non-lender work and luckily that will be enough to keep me going through the slow period. But I have always counted on lender work, so to see it all go away about a month ago was a hard hit.

I hope it turns around soon for all the starving appraisers out there, but with the AMCs hiring underpaid appraisers and lowering the fees, I don't see a really good future for this industry unless you build up your non-lender base.

Bryan

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