Inventing the Future

Monday, January 7, 2013

I have been fixated on the future for most of my career.  At some point the quotation "The best way to predict the future is to invent it" became a core belief of mine. It's funny how many people I come across have a similar perspective.

People with ideas will drive the future of our industry. There are many with ideas. But frankly, ideas are easy. What is more of a challenge is bringing an idea to fruition.  Mainstreaming innovation is even harder.

I've always considered myself a futurist-one concerned about and considers the impact of changes occurring that move us forward as an industry.

When I started in the appraisal profession, I began in the assessment side. I shall be forever grateful that I began there. I learned about data. I learned about statistical analysis. I learned how to look at broader markets and more than three comps when examining valuation.

In 1992, I wrote my first article for the International Association of Assessing Officers in their publication Assessment Digest. I talked about opportunities in a time of chaos.

Four years later, I wrote an article for the Appraisal Institute that examined the use of statistics in real estate valuation. I thought it would happen within a few years. I was wrong. The status quo is a tough opponent. The cost of doing nothing is often lower than doing anything, even if the "anything" is demonstrably better. That has always frustrated me.

All of this is relevant as we look towards 2013 and beyond.

I remember demonstrating an analytics product to the Chief Appraiser of one of the biggest lenders in the nation in 2008. He sent me an email the next day and told me that he had been unable to sleep the night before because of his excitement over a product that melded data, analytics and the experience of an appraiser. That institution is gone; the future deferred. I have had five years to think about the reasons why. I suppose I'm an older and wiser futurist.

The truth of the matter is that the champions for change are a critical ingredient in the process of implementing change. As appraisers, Chief Appraisers, and Collateral Valuation managers-we have limited influence on the broader financial infrastructure. The excitement of new analytics, and a broader mandate for change, only gets appraisers so far up the organizational ladder. The same organization impediments continue to stifle change-no matter how attractive-no matter how well intended.

How do solutions emerge within this environment and gain traction within an industry?

The Two Great Trends

Several years ago, the CEO of a large title insurance company noted that "those who control the data will rule". He was absolutely right. But I would go one further-it's not just the data-it is the ability to analyze the data and derive insight into markets and property values. I call it mining and refining data.

For residential and commercial appraisers-there simply has been no process improvement in workflow or analysis in a decade or more. I eliminate from this statement the continuing fine-tuning of appraisal software, which is nothing more than figuring out how to fill out a form more efficiently.  Filling out a form faster is NOT what this industry needs. What it needed simply stated-is more standardized data and the ability to analyze that data.

In order for innovation to find success-we as an industry must embrace it.  We must, in fact insist on it. I have been involved in product development for more than a decade. What has always been difficult to understand is the dichotomy in between those who "get it" and those who oppose change under any circumstance and are satisfied with the status quo.

The latter can be vocal, and are unaware of the damage they cause to the overall pace of change in the industry.
What needs to change is the appetite and acceptance of new data availability and the analytics would drive greater insight into the nature of markets that ultimately we are changed with analyzing.

Appraisers are the local market experts. Data is ever more readily available. Tools are being developed and will continue to be exposed to the market over the next several years.

What should appraisers do? They should be open to the tools; they need to be open to new ways of thinking about values. They must step out of the form prison that they have been inhabiting for the last decade, and think about the value first-the form second.

Historically, appraisers have thought more about the form, and less about the process of valuation. That is about to change. The concept of interactive valuation models, a concept which was first discussed in the 2010 Appraisal Institute text "Visual Valuation", proposes a more sophisticated interaction between the appraiser, data and analytical tools.  No such tools existed until 2009. In 2013, the industry will see the introduction of a half dozen or more.

The future is being imagined, designed and implemented today. Our responsibility as a profession is to step out of our comfort zone and be open to and support efforts to bring true innovation into an industry that has for too long accepted mediocrity instead of meaningful innovation.  Faster form filling is not innovation. Once everyone realizes this-our opportunities will increase exponentially.

What will the future bring? will it bring a pool of ever-increasing data, a plethora of tools and new ways of analyzing data? Futurists are already talking about Big Data-data about data. Appraisers have always been at the forefront of using multiple data sources to explain other data about property. That process is about to go into high gear with the greater availability of data, UAD and the transference of analytic techniques from other financial services sectors.

Solutions are being crafted that will dramatically impact our profession. In order to have any chance of success, we must be open to solutions that will enable transformative impact. Working together, all of the relevant stakeholders can achieve meaningful change.

The future is filled with opportunity. Our responsibility as a profession is to be open to, and encourage the innovation that will result in the fulfillment of the promise that is on the horizon.

Comments

Mark is simply experiencing the same frustration that nearly all innovators have faced down through history. Major change is always opposed at first, then grudgingly accepted, and eventually embraced with open arms.I for one am very interested in the new tools that are coming out.

The appraisal industry doesn't need re-invented or even invented. The paramids have lasted 10,000 years and were built with hand-to-hand, human, pick & shovel labor. "Think tanks" and all this hocus-pocus is baloney. We are hired to measure the market. This was the same job description that was valid 60 years ago. Ask a plumber working on a 100 old home. If he was taught the fundamentals, he can trace the route of the leak and apply a 100 year old model (adapter)  to fix it. This stuff is all to get new guys into the profession who skipped steps in their training. I know guys in the business for 40 years who can leave a home and be within 5% of the value without even starting their grid. All this innovation is to make someone in software industry money.

Hi,I enjoyed the article.  I have been performing corporate relocation appraisals for over 30 years.  It is allowed to be "flexible" with sales, pending sales! and competing listings.  The relocation companies want you to hit a "home run" in terms of estimating fair market value.  The bank work is all about keeping the ball within the foul lines.  Comply with the guidelines and worry about the value second.  If they can change, so can appraisers who do the mortgage work.  I will wait and see.  More data is great, but the individual appraiser needs the "flexibility" to use and interpret the data.Ken MacDonough SRA, CRP  

The "problem", as much as anything, may be that appraisers have not been asked the right question.  Appraisers are actually asked for their most accurate estimate of the most probable selling price of a property.  For the most part, they have successfully answered that question.  In my small town market, at least, I have yet to see the "Big Data" analytics that can consistently outperform a good appraiser.                                                                                         This makes sense when you think about it.  No amount of Big Data analytics can look at a basement wall and forecast the probability of the stains on the wall being a sign of fairly normal efflorescence or a sign of a significant leaking problem.  Multiply that by 100, and it is no wonder that the analytics can sometimes look awfully foolish.                                                                                   But maybe the consumer of the values appraisers provide do not need such a high level of reliability.  Maybe if the appraiser could be accurate to within 20% of the value 66% of the time, that would be sufficient.  Certainly, that is the general type of accuracy measure that analytics may provide.  And the models can prove their reliability statistically.  Posed those terms, I suspect appraisers could be as accurate as many of the models with very quick turn times and very low fees, but only if clients and USPAP would waive most of the current requirements.                                                                            Imagine how that could work.  An appraiser gets an emailed assignment and makes an appointment to see the house the next morning.  After the inspection, the appraiser querries the Big Data database to spit out 10 comps, and maybe even suggest adjustments using analytics of some type.  The appraser, of course, overrides the suggested adjustments and puts down a value.  The value is immediately sent electronically to the client about 24 hours after the initial request.  There are no adjustments shown, no detailed description of the proiperty, neighborhood or much of anything else (maybe about as much data as the old "Green Hornet" S&L appraisal form in 1970).  And no reviewer.                                                                         Fast, cheap, and maybe "good enough" depending upon the desired parameters.  No statistical validity, but at least someone inspected the property.  Sure the property sells the next week for $200,000 and the appraiser came in at $170,000 but that is acceptable according to the set parameters.  Call it another good appraisal.  Plenty of appraisers would jump at the chance to work in this world.                                                                          But what clients would accept this type of appraisal?  Over the last 20 years, clients have insisted on the opposite: more and more accuracy, more and more work, and more and more scrutiny by reviewers.  And cheaper fees.  Appraisers can provide what their clients are asking for (accurate and exhaustively documented 40 page reports) or they can provide fast and cheap appraisals that aren't very accurate and have little documentation beyond boilerplate and push button analytics.  What appraisers can't provide and will never be able to provide is a combination of the first option that is also fast and cheap.                                                                           Analytics are probably here to stay, but when a value absolutely has to be accurate because YOUR money is on the line (e.g. dividing up property in an estate) would YOU agree to abide by the results from an analytics engine touted by a party with an interest adverse to yours (like Zillow, for instance)?  Until analytics engines are forthright is disclosing their statistical measures of accuracy to consumers, and until consumers are comfortable with those degrees of accuracy, there will always be a need for good appraisers.                                                                                For mortgage loan appraisals, however, we have the strange world where clients are demanding ever more research, analysis, reporting and scrutiny while complaining more and more about cost and time.  Appraisers could cut through this Gordian knot if asked the right question and given the opportunity, but it is hard to see that happening.  In the meantime, Big Data and analytics will probably continue to gain ground, despite their limitations.

The subjectivity of data will NEVER be erased.  The UAD has plenty of subjective analysis.  When I compare how I use the UAD format and how other appraisers use it there are significant differences.  The appraisals I have reviewed use the UAD format differently than I use it.  I really don't care as long as there is consistency.  I am not going to get in a fight over whether a property should be Q3 or Q4 or C3 or C4.  Second of all "consistency" of data is hard to come by.  I can show houses where the GLA by the appraiser, the assessor, and the realtor are all different by large degrees.  Someone has to determine which data is the most reliable.  The MLS data we use is terrible.  Realtors don't know one end of the tape measure from the other.  And they are too lazy even to look up the county tax records.  And I have seen tax records so awfully wrong one has to wonder!   And as far as statistical data analysis in my area is concerned you might as well kiss it good by.  I remember having an AVM used on a home and it over valued it by 200,000 because it couldn't tell the difference between a site on the lake and off the lake.  It just used the nearest comps.  In fact I have NEVER seen an AVM that was accurate.  All those statistical models might work in very homogenous areas like suburbs in large Metro areas.  But they are totally and completely worthless in rural areas.

Unfortunately, the future is likely to be more of the past if the lending industry continues to exert absolute control over much of the appraisal profession. Until appraisers figure out how to control their own profession there is no future to be had. Sorry, that is not a complaint it is merely a statement of fact.

Mark, Great article! The difficult part is to bring theory and reality together.  I agree fully that data is king and the analyzation of the data is important.  The problem does not lay only with appraisers, the clients have to share the responsibility of receiving and paying for the data.  Appraising was never intended to be a form filling industry, however the clients want it that way.  I do not feel that the percentage of appraisers that refuse to change is high, more than likely it is a result of the percentage of clients that will not accept the changes.  You ask any appraiser out there that does any work for AMC or lenders and you will find a similar response.  If I don't put something in a report the exact way they want it or in the exact place they want it then they will not accept it.  In todays world if the AMC does not accept it then you don't get paid for it.  If you fight them an insist you are not changing things to fit into a nice mold you get labeled as being difficult and you no longer get business from that company.   In addition in today's industry the amount of disposal income is much lower than in previous years, and new processes and technology always cost money. This battle needs to be be fought on two fronts, getting the appraisers to accept and implement change and getting the client (lending industry) to accept and pay for the new information and processes.  This is essential as for the most part there is not enough non lending business out there to support us all. Theory vs. reality.  Lonnie Heward

This is excatly right and well said!

2013 Captain Mark's log.  USS Enterprise - Starfleet Command.  I am totally thrilled and excited about the future of real estate appraising as described by Mark.  What an adventure it will be! The key to the future of the appraisal industry is proper training and use of appraiser assisted analytic tools! Appraisers are expected to use appropriate methodologies and a variety of property data sources to demonstrate the reliability of the value, and provide adequate comments to describe the subject's market. Dang them changes.  The horse and buggy worked just fine before cars and planes.  Why, I even heard they have satellites in orbit that can tell you if a storm is approaching - instead of the televison weatherman using cloud and sun magnets on a board - (black & white TV that is).  And how bout them thar pyramids anyways?  What the sam hill were them fur? Accept and embrace change, or continue wearing the Klingon aluminum hat and using 3 comps on a grid.  The pyramids are not logical.  Hello Star Trek ;-)       Bruce

As for appraisers and pyramids having some connection try Googling "Floating Stones - Great Pyramid built with Water Power"...it's on Amazon and soon to be an E-book. The authors are Sam Sampson and Michael Read. Mike is a Certified General appraiser in OR and WA currently doing CVR appraisals which were largely developed with Mark Linne's expertise. I have another longer comment about the "innovators" to come later.

Look at what change has accomplished:I acknowledge that XML is a plain text format, that can be easily modified and accept full responsibility for potential violations of consumer privacy rules in Gramm-Leach-Bliley (GLB) when sending appraisal l data in XML formal in an attachment to a standard unsecured and un-verifiable e-mail message. I have to give myself permission to format a file on my computer and be reminded of the XXXXX Washington crowd. You can keep your change.

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