Valuation 2.0

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

I think that I shall never see

An appraisal as lovely as a tree.

Perhaps, until the scope of work shrink
We will continue to cut trees and print with ink.

Hey, I am no Ogden Nash but seriously folks, appraisers are living a “death by a thousand cuts”. It really is long overdue.

The 1004 form was last updated in 2005 and at that time the major rewrites were to the addendum. Technology-wise we are about where we should be if it were 1993. Digital cameras and delivery via email brought the last leap in technology gains to the appraisal world nearly two decades. During that time period Kodak and Polaroid went down the tubes. Think about that for a minute.

If you aren’t thinking it I am sure the rest of the housing finance world is thinking it. Please do pardon the pun but what value do you bring to the process? If the only purpose you serve is to measure a house, take photos and type three recent similar sales on a grid they really don’t need you to do that.

10 million people filed their own taxes this year with Turbo Tax. You need H&R block why? Do you know the training these folks have at these tax prep companies? How many shares of stock do you think traded through online trading platforms like Scottrade? Do you need to pay a broker a high fee to do that for you? Maybe you do if you want their advice. Perhaps you value their analysis.

I think we need to rethink practically everything we do. An awful lot of things we do in the appraisal process are simply based on legacy systems. We need to take a fresh look at it all. I have had the pleasure to get to know Ed Pinto, former chief credit risk officer at Fannie Mae in the 80s. Ed shared with me how the forms were tinkered with over the years not so much based on sound appraisal theory in an effort to reduce misrepresentation and fraud. I know it is shocking, but people lie on appraisal reports. Most of the crazy stuff including today’s expanded scope is all meant to stop appraisers from lying. How is that working out?

I have done a little bit of forensic work and spoke to Gregg Opelka. The “green hornet”, the first appraisal form, was designed in 1962 by Mr. Opelka for the Savings & Loan League. Prior to that there was no standard report. Jack Weaver, former chief appraiser for Fannie Mae developed the predecessor to today’s 1004 in the early-1970s, but in a strange twist it was adopted first by Freddie, before Fannie quickly followed suit. Both GSEs adopted the 1004 in 1982 and that brings us up to where we are today… pretty much where we were in 1962.

What’s so bad about it? I think it is pretty abysmal actually. I am trying to find something positive to say, really, I am. I began my career in 1982 at a Savings in Loan in Baltimore. I first began in commercial work and from time to time would fill in and assist the residential appraisers in peak periods. I remember being shown how to make adjustments. Yes, I was trained by an SRA and my training was excellent. But I must tell you I thought the process was kind of dumb then. It is dumber today in the context of what we should and could be doing to add value to the process. I wrote my demo too and earned my SRA in 1989. I think that was the first and last time I addressed matched pairs.

I remember the conversation when I learned that the GSEs didn’t get a copy of the appraisal. It went something like this but not exactly ... “What?” I said. My friend at a GSE, “ Yes, that’s correct. We rely on reps & warrants”. I gulped. “OK, why is Morley Safer and the 60 Minutes crew not busting down your doors?” This is like learning as an adult there is no tooth fairy or Santa Claus. I was in a state of utter disbelief. I felt lied to. Duped. Like my boyfriend had just cheated on me. “Why exactly do you require appraisals”? My GSE friend says “Well, you see lenders are responsible for the quality of the appraisal report.” That was said somewhat tongue in cheek because in the same conversation an admission was made that they knew appraisals were grossly inflated. And in that same conversation it was also stated that borrowers don’t default because of inflated appraisals. My reaction was that I believe they will. “I can’t prove it but you are wrong, very wrong.” The rest is history. Today we actually have a name for those… strategic defaults.

So what sort of makeover do the forms need to bring value back to the appraisal process? At a very high level the forms need to collect all of the data points necessary for the lender and the secondary market to determine collateral risk. We don’t do that well today. And then we need to supply better analysis. Would you pay someone $400 to tell you what Apple’s stock price sold for over the past 3 weeks? Not likely because you can look at a stock chart yourself to see where it has been. You might be interested in your financial advisor’s opinion on Apple’s value taking into account fundamentals such as earnings, balance sheet, and competitive environment.

Most everybody thinks of MLS data as the Holy Grail. I’m thinking garbage in, garbage out. I am not suggesting at this point in time there is a viable alternative because there isn’t one. There could be. Why are you using sales data for valuations? Why aren’t agents using valuation data for listings? It is entirely backwards. We must create the architecture for Valuation 2.0. The infrastructure is not in place. In fact, we can’t even get the identity of the subject property correct. Can you believe we aren’t challenging that a little louder?

Appraiser conversations go like this…. “Mr. Lender did you know that this property I quoted you a fee for is actually an auto body shop with an illegal apartment on 4 acres with 2 mobile homes?”  Lender…” what is your point”? Appraiser: “Well, I can’t do it for $300 in 7 days and I can’t do it on a 1004 form”. Lender replies loudly… “ Sure you can. It must go on that form or Fannie Mae won’t buy it. And if Fannie Mae won’t buy it, I don’t get paid. And besides, the borrower has cancer and really needs it for an operation to save their life.”

I rest my case.

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Finally!  Someone has the nerve to say it:  "Garbage in, Garbage out."  If one more AMC flunky tells me how great the MLS says the subject is, I'll scream.   Agreed on the dated, moribund nature of our industry.  Changes are on the horizon, though....Keep your eyes open.

Joan,You have truly tackled the gorilla.  Best of luck, but it might be easier to move a mountain. Appraising is a profession that aspires to independence which is clearly beyond our reach.  Indeed, independence in appraising is a really bad business model, particularly in residential mortgage work. Your final paragraph is the illustrative of the problem the appraiser faces.  But then isn't CRN composed primarily of members who work for the very entities who intend to keep the appraisers dependent?  How are you going to convert a majority (or even an influential few) of your own members to your way of thinking?

So you and the other AMCs can hire check box chimps and keep fees low. Did you ever read a good commercial appraisal? It is in narrative form and you have to have to actually know something about construction, market trends, the law of diminishing returns, economies of scale, etc.  Yea, keep extolling technology so the greeters at Walmart can become appraisers.  

I have spent the last 8 years doing review work and through exposure to that I have seen the frustration on this side of the equation with the entire appraisal process.  There is a lot of distrust there.  I think that is the core of the problem.  I know appraisers are saying that if they are paid more they would do a better job, but I think AMC/Lenders/Institutions think that if they pay more they will just get the same sub-par stuff so why pay more?  How do build that trust again?The other thing I see is the incredible amount of value that appraisers can add to the entire real estate industry, but because USPAP wasn't written to fully encompass the full range of products that appraisers could provide; that work is shifting to brokers who do a really poor job of it.  Tens of thousands of BPOs are being ordered by very large institutions that simply need help en masse with setting proper listing prices.  USPAP apparently doesn't allow for this OR at the very least USPAP is too scary for these institutions to use appraisers for this work.  They would rather take a very very very poor product and avoid that mess than get a much better product from an appraiser.  Even beyond BPOs we should be asking the question, "How can we help?".  We should be going to these large institutions that order these BPOs and asking, "How can we do this better for you?".  Appraisers have the experience, knowledge, and resources to provide a really wide range of services that could revolutionize our industry and provide everyone with more than enough work.Why do we have to supervise our trainees on all of their appraisals?  Let's get this one out there too.  A certified appraiser is fully capable of training someone to measure, photograph, and inspect a residential property.  The demographics of this industry are horrible and the system is rigged to force supervising appraisers to lie about being present on inspections with their trainees.  I have even seen that there is a firm in the Dallas area that is playing with the idea of rigging their trainees with lipstick video cameras on some kind of helmet that streams video of the inspection back to their office in order to meet those guidelines, but freed up to work on other stuff at the same time.  That is ridiculous!  Come on!I totally agree with Joan on this.  This industry needs to get our best and brightest in one room and rethink USPAP, the forms, our products, our processes, how we interact with AMCs....EVERYTHING.  I don't know if you knew this or not, but the last telegraph is about to get sent in India this year.  India still has a telegraph service that they lose millions on every year running.  I bet the people running that system in India think it's really unfair too.  They probably think it's ridiculous that people prefer texting and email to the telegraph.  We need to step back and look at our profession with open eyes and make the changes necessary to preserve it for the future, make it better now, and possibly even allow us to thrive in the near term.Thanks!Hansel Dobbs

You hit the nail on the head (maybe not on purpose) when you stated, "Please do pardon the pun but what value do you bring to the process? If the only purpose you serve is to measure a house, take photos and type three recent similar sales on a grid they really don’t need you to do that." The problem is that they DO need you to do that - that's what they WANT!To the lending industry, an appraisal is viewed as nothing more than a possible impediment to closing a deal. Have you even had many happy BORROWERS when you come in below sales price? Are they happy they didn't overpay for a home by $20,000 or are they more concerned that you "screwed up their deal"? These days, AMC's and lending institutions they want you to add a pending and two listings to an appraisal but won't let you use that information in the analysis or in coming up with a market value. Even if your 3 sales closed yesterday, they all went sale pending typically 30-60 days prior, so your effective date SHOULD be the most recent pending date of the three sales. In effect, we're ALL doing retrospective appraisals and have been for some time.  The URAR with the UAD modifications is nothing more than a tool to collect data. As you say, garbage in, garbage out. One person's C2 is another's C3. I won't hold my breath for the day the lending industry wants us to use our knowledge and judgment rather than produce cookie cutter appraisals that don't cause problems with their paychecks.

06/20/2013Ms. Trice,I agree with your premise that the current appraisal forms, that were drafted and amended by numerous forces in the industry over the years, need improvement. However, your assertion that "if the only purpose you serve is to is to measure a house, take photos, and type three recent similar sales in a grid, then they (clients) don't need you." I get your point, Joan, but not all licensed, certified, or designated appraisers can actually accurately measure many of today's dwellings; the photographs should be consistent with the written report and clarify any noted issues to the reader/user of the report; and the proper selection of the comparable sales data is a key factor in rendering a credible and reliable opinion of market value. The best available market data has to be diligently verified to ensure its comparability as well as to provide accuracy and consistency to the applicable adjustments. That is why numerous information sources are critical if the appraiser is to be truly geographically competent. However, your premise, in all its condescension, fails to realize the primary value a professional and independent appraiser brings to the table. That is utilizing years, or decades, of experience to accurately interpret and analyzing the myriad applicable empirical market data and formulating that into a well-supported and credible opinion of market value. There is almost an infinite amount of data available to ALL market participants. Yet critical analysis and reliable and accurate interpretation of this mountain of data are the valuable service that buyers, sellers and lenders pay for and depend on. As, Mr. Pinto, has opined on in past articles, what business decisions our lender clients choose to make with that opinion of market as of that effective date and with that exposure period within those market conditions, based on their borrower client's economic viability, is their business and they should have to accept any and all responsibility for those decisions and their actions.  A real estate professional, I am a realty agent and certified residential appraiser, I and others are working diligently with fellow agents and the software providers to implement effective changes to enhance the accuracy of all data in the local MLS. And I agree that all available market data, listings, pending sales, closed sales, and expired listings should be considered in valuing any property either for positioning it on the market for a listing or in determining an opinion of market value. Yes, the data is important, yet accurately interpreting the data is critical.Your analogy of real estate to a stock is poorly chosen and does not convey your point. Those contextual "fundamentals" you noted are the value a quality professional appraiser brings to the table. Paired-sales analysis is a critical tool in substaniating a market-based adjustment factor. I work across the real estate industry and I know what a bathroom, kitchen, HVAC unit, new roof, garage or other facets of a dwelling cost across the price range and quality of construction spectrum and I generally know what contributory value they bring based on location, price-range, and other market-specific factors. I have earned this knowledge and experience over many years, many sales and many appraisals. This is the value that I bring to analyze and accurately interpret the data for my various clients who appreciate my services. Listing data (unsold properties) superior to recent closed sales data? Give me a willing and able buyer over a hopeful or irrationalbly exhuberant seller, Joan. Questionable at best.  And, lastly, your appraiser conversation.....implies that a professional appraiser has not the due diligence or intelligence to qualify the appraisal assignment, its scope of work and a customary & reasonable fee prior to accepting the assignment. This on the heals of your shocking revelation that some incompetent, unethical and unscrupulous appraisers "lie on appraisal reports." Look at many loan files, Joan? I assure you that with the current environment in the appraisal profession, there is absolutely no reason for any rational and ethical appraiser to lie or mislead or commit fraud, through omission or commission, in an appraisal report. None. More business. Yeah right. None. For the record, I enjoy your articles.    

Overlooking the poor writing skills, this article looks like a set up.  Yeah, sure, right, the problem is all with the form.  As poor as the form is from an appraiser's standpoint (think Cert 23) it is more than satisfactory for analyzing a home for mortgage financing.  The problem, so to speak, is that most residential lenders have shown a heavy bias toward engaging low-cost form fillers over an appraiser with the ability to analyze.The push should not be for a new form or valuation process, but to an internal methodology at the lender to engage appraisers who have the capicity to analyze.  Unfortunately, lenders have been actively seeking out the low-cost form filler - an issue only exacerbated with HVDD and Dodd/Frank and their AMC-centric solutions. The problems with residential lending isn't the methodology, it with who is engaged to perform the appraisal. <!-- st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } --> <!-- /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman";} -->

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