You've Been Robbed!

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

The Great Collateral Underwriter Caper

Hold the presses and rewrite the headlines! Retitle the newsletter, get ready to put this on your home page, and tweet everyone. You have been robbed! The data you have provided on every appraisal submitted since the development of the UAD communication system has been analyzed and the GSEs have created what is likely the greatest tool in collateral assessment history. A tool so powerful it can identify risky collateral. A tool so powerful it can calculate adjustment values. A tool so powerful it can run a comparable search and rate in numeric sequence the comparables it identifies as most similar to the subject. And most importantly a tool which… is not available to you. But there is hope. Read on.

The Background

Take the time to read up on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's new Collateral Underwriter. This is a fascinating development where the immense amount of data the GSEs have accumulated can be used to rank the quality of an appraisal, helping the lender determine if that collateral may have an elevated level of risk. For example, if you do a complex home with market data that requires large adjustments or is taken from different locations, CU will recognize that there is weakness in the appraisal. Kudos to the system as we all know an appraisal on which we have weak data is often less accurate than a simple appraisal. Similarly, an appraisal of a subdivision home with an active market and great market data will receive a high score. Kudos again. The key to the lender is a well scored appraisal reduces future risk for a buy back demand.

Where did all of this data come from? You.

The Bad

First, let me apologize to the high quality review appraisers and appraisal leadership that value appraisers, believes in the cost plus model, promotes professionalism, allows adequate time for report completion, and works hard to convince lenders that only items that are important to developing a credible value should be considered as an addition to the scope. All appraisers appreciate you and it is not my intention to lump all reviewers and leaders together.

However, it seems to most appraisers you are not the one that contacts us.

Rather, we are dealing with what we perceive to be a less experienced appraiser or an administrative reviewer working off a check list. Now they have authority over the veteran appraisers trying very hard to use whatever market data we have (not that we wish we had) to do a good job.

I hope the Collateral Underwriter system will be used to assist appraisers and improve reports. It seems more likely the intent is punitive and the reviewer I note above will now have the ability to question comparable selection and adjustment values. Can you imagine a reviewer with the power to say "Collateral Underwriter rated 6 comparables higher than 3 of your comparables. Please review and let me know why you did not use these 6 comparables." And, of course, that work will be expected to be free.

The Hope

Why do I have hope? The GSE message from the start is that they are motivated to improve the quality of valuation. If they only use this data in a punitive way they will not only fail in that goal but continue to drive appraisers out of the industry.

So, let's look at the logical evolution. All appraiser leaders and organizations take note: We must band together and put the wheels in motion to create an end goal of Big Data made available for use day to day in our appraisal office.

Money makes a lot of things happen. Collateral Underwriter will be offered to FNMA clients at no cost. With nearly 100,000 appraisers listed on the national register assume for a moment that around 25% paid $50 per month for access to a GSE system. 25,000 appraisers paying $600 per year equals an income stream of $15,000,000 per year. Seems like that might be enough money to motivate even the GSEs to participate. If not, maybe they will partner with a private business.

Let's dream. The goal would be to use the GSE system to assist in your development of an appraisal report. You would be able to complete searches as you do now, using your local data sources and market knowledge. Then you would be able to see how your selections compare to the computer generated options. Your software vendor would work with the GSEs to allow direct input of the data right into your appraisal grid in UAD format. Suggested adjustment values would automatically be registered based on the GSE massive data analysis.

To be clear, the GSEs have stated there is no plan to share this with the rank and file appraiser. Is that ok with you?

Time to band with your peers, speak loud, and see if we can make a change in the next chapter of the Great Collateral Underwriter Caper.

Steve Papin has been a residential appraiser in Cincinnati, Ohio since 1976 and served as the 2012 president of the Ohio Coalition of Appraisal Professionals.

Have any comments or would you like to submit content of your own? Email comments@appraisalbuzz.com.

Comments

I agree with your post except for the part where we pay for OUR own Data. They robbed us, sounds like a class action suit to me since we have never been reimbursed for all of our valuable information that we took hours and hours to put together for each report, UNLESS they give us that same data for FREE, that they are giving FNMA clients for free.

I DO understand however the money talks....so at a minimal fee is makes total sense for them to work WITH us rather than against us. Why not give us this data so we can at least show them why we may not chose those computer generated comps for our reports and head them off at the pass. Not only that but it will save huge amounts of time back and forth after they review our report and want to know why we did not use those other computer generated comps. Lets us work proactively together. Let's save time, money and close these deals that can be closed sooner, with less risky reports in their files.

I know of no other profession where everyone is so eager to rip us apart for an OPINION of value and then USE our DATA against us in order to criticize our reports. I agree appraisers will exit out of this business, with one change....they will lose GOOD appraisers, as they are sick and tired of having their expertise questioned every step of the way by people who have less experience in the business and who never see the property in question.

I am working very hard to increase my personal business and say goodbye to lender business. I won't have to deal with this nonsense any longer after 23 years in the profession.

The appraiser through years and years of experience knows the markets and market reactions. We have walked though the homes and have seen every detail. We drive by them every day in our travels. Computers and data cannot replace that knowledge. A computer cannot see possible termites. A computer cannot see possible structural problems. A computer cannot see many potential value issues. This change is all about money and no one wanting to pay us for our hard work. Eventually the data will be used to make loans without us. That will certainly cause the greatest mortgage crisis ever known eventually! That's when we can sit back on our easy chair and let the government pay is "not to work" and say: "We Told Them!" Smiling. Fannie and Government never listens to the most knowledgeable, all you have to do is watch the news to know that.

Computers replaced Wall Street traders long ago. Nearly 90% of all daily trades are made by super computers. If they can be held responsible for countless multi billion dollar portfolios I feel sure that they will be able to trust them to accurately value a $30,000 to $10,000,000 wooden box. Like it or not super computers are here and ready to steal the remaining 20% of your income boys. The UAD Gatlin gun that they intend to aim at your heads in January of 2015 is simply the beginning. If you are lucky they may keep you on five years from now to verify that the structure does exist for a $25 fee.

Consider being a realist. You'll live longer.

We currently have robots landscaping Mars...Voyager satellite has left our solar system and is still functioning very well...Robots performing heart surgery...need I continue. To state that the 21st Century appraiser cannot be replaced by computer valuation is quite foolish. My question is...What took so long? Mark this on your calendar...commercial or residential...mortgage lending/Attorney's/Accountant's/etc...every type of privately held real estate that is currently using the Appraisal Profession's long division to determine value/utility will be out of work in 24 months. At the latest!!! Public sector work will probably hang on a bit longer. My recommendation...invest in the Valuation Industry. No USPAP...No UAD...No Signatures...No liability...NO MORE LOOKING OVER YOU SHOULDER WAITING FOR THE NEXT INSANE PIECE OF REGULATION TO TAKE MORE OF YOUR TIME/MONEY!!! This is over. We all know it - we just have to accept reality.

Happy Holidays!!!

The Mother of All Data Bases. I like where your mind is at Steve, I guess great minds think alike, we're both truckin' down the same vein, just moving to a different beat maybe? I've already been trying to come up with a way for appraisers to send the UAD data from our reports to create our own nation wide data base, owned and operated by appraiser's. Sounds similar to your idea, but I'm not talking about appraiser's paying a fee to use the data, NO! I'm talking about an appraiser based version of Zillow, free to the public.

We'd have to figure out a way to scrub interior photos and other "personal" home owner information but just think about it: Overnight we could render web sites like Zillow, Trulia and Realtor.com worthless. Why would any home owner log onto those sites when the best they could get is "good enough" when home owners could go to the appraiser's site and get an estimated value based on "verified" data? $15 million? That's chump change my friend. Don't forget, last August Zillow announced they were buying Trulia for about $3.5 billion.

If anyone out there thinks that hedge fund managers on Wall Street with connections to Washington haven't already tried getting at that "Mother of All Data Bases" that FNMA has been building since UAD started, think again. I say we beat them all to the punch. We don't need national unions to speak for us or data bases to use on a "pay-per-click" basis. Big data is here. Why pay for it. Let's monetize it and capitalize on it. We need a privately held corporation where the majority shareholders are certified appraiser's making minimum monthly contributions to the data base as a result of our submissions to our lender clients. Anyone who wants in can buy shares or get certified and trained and start doing appraisals. But the majority of shares will be held by the contributors to the data base (the appraisers). I don't know...conflict of interest issues? Maybe, maybe not, I've been mulling this one over ever since I heard how much Zillow is buying Trulia for. Its our data, we should be thinking about ways to make it worth something more than just a one time fee and a lifetime of liability. Sure, there would be issues to work out, but hey: Rome wasn't built in a day either. Sometimes its fun to think about actually making money, isn't it? And I definitely like where your mind is at. Hmm, making money off of something we have produced. Now that's a new concept.

Carl Thurber
C & R Appraisal

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