Bubble Markets, Last Week's Post, and Happy Holidays

Sunday, December 15, 2013

Post No. 35 – First off and most importantly, Happy Holidays to everyone. Be safe, enjoy some down time with family and friends, and here's to a Happy New Year!

Second, last week's post got a lot of feedback. I appreciate all of the comments - for and against. There is hardly an issue that doesn't have people for and against. Nothing different in our industry. I did want to note some feedback I got directly from a few AMCs. They liked my viewpoint and stated that their good appraisers often quoted lower fees because they knew they were going to be reviewed by peer professionals. I have experienced that myself. Over the decades I have seen the appraisers I use bid about 10%-15% lower than they would bid for competitive banks (remember reviewers usually see the work of all appraisers in an area and also of many other banks). The reason these appraisers would give me is they knew they were bidding against equally competent appraisers, my review staff was composed of former fee appraisers and thus had valid questions, we paid quickest of all companies, and we insulated them from undue pressure. It was cheaper and easier for them to do an assignment for us than it was other banks or AMCs. Again, low bids were/are provided by the best appraisers in these situations. Obviously, this is not always the case.

Third, is in regard to the article below that was posted on the Appraisal Institute's website:

Fitch: Nation’s Homes Overvalued by 17 Percent

As the nation’s home prices continue to rise, several cities are approaching bubble-level price peaks, ratings firm Fitch Ratings announced Nov. 6 in its Sustainable Home Price Model.

Home prices have risen 13 percent from a year ago, and Fitch warned that that level of growth is unsustainable. The firm reported that home prices are approximately 17 percent overvalued. Many of the cities with overvalued homes are in California.

“Home prices in San Francisco have gone up over 20 percent year-over-year, the highest rate of increase than at any point in the last 10 years,” Stefan Hilts, director at Fitch, said in a news release. “In fact, San Francisco and San Jose will set new home price records in the next six months.”

Fitch's SHP model currently identifies much of coastal California as more than 20 percent overvalued. Other California cities nearing bubble-year peaks include Oakland, San Diego and Los Angeles.

Fitch also noted that all-cash sales have seen a sharp increase since last year and now account for nearly 50 percent of deals. The ratings firm noted concern that home price increases are being driven more through speculative buying than from increasing demand.

Home prices continue to increase despite rising mortgage interest rates. Interest rates have continued to rise since May, and Fitch said it expects interest rates to increase further in 2014, which will strain affordability if home prices remain elevated.
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The concept I, and others, propose is that when the above is occurring the current sales prices need to be adjusted downward for Conditions of Sale - i.e. buyers are not being prudent and thus the market value definition conditions are not being met. As a generalization (and this is simply a huge generalization for discussion purposes), appraisers would adjust current sale prices down by about 17%.

Some, or likely many(!), would argue with doing this. However, this is the same logic that the world demands regarding 'foreclosure' sales during market declines. In those cases, the argument is made that the seller is not being prudent and thus the definition of market value is not being met with those sales.

And there we have the same argument at the top and bottom. However, people only want positive adjustments to sales at the bottom and not downward adjustments to the sales at the top. The appraisal industry has obliged for the past 80 years. It is time to change and adjust the sale prices in overpriced markets downward or not use the sales comparison approach at all.

Lastly, and somewhat related to the above concept, I am excited that tomorrow (Monday December 16th) will be the launch of the AEI's International Center on Housing Risk (ICHR). The ICHR will be presenting newly developed risk indices on housing markets in various countries - maybe even somewhat localized indices over time. I will definitely be discussing this new development throughout 2014.

Until next year,

Ban The Sales Comparison Approach!
George R. Mann, CRE, FRICS, MAI
"The postings on this site are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Situs."

Comments

as opposed to...?
it sure sounds like the organizations that you've been associated with are the exception, not the rule.
the constant scope creep, turn time pressure and ridiculous stips, that I and many others I know, are unfortunately all too common.
be honest, most AMCs sell price and turn time to their potential clients. the NY market, where I and my true peers operate, generally requires considerable narrative.
perhaps in cookie cutter land, your points are valid. my reports exceed 30 pages today where 12-15 pages can produce results just as credible, if only the reviewer would read.
I also do a considerable amount of review work. i've yet to see an MC addendum which provides credible data and interpretation. my "peers" often can not understand why the number of listings on the MC do not equal the current listings above the sales comparison. i could go on for pages about the nonsense we're subjected to but it's all been thrashed out here and elsewhere.
i would truly love to speak to any of these skillful appraiser's who are bidding lower for the reasons you cite. maybe i'm just to dense to get it.

George, good luck with your 17% adjustment in court. Oh yeah, your E&O carrier is also gonna have something to say about that theorized adjustment.

Geez Diego, you are such a positive person:) In my younger days, I would enjoy jousting with you. But, nowadays I know it is better to be proactive and change this industry and let you and others enjoy some cheese with your whine.
I never said the 17% adjustment could be made nowadays....the industry has to change totally to understand that price and value are two different issues and prices almost never equate to value. Right now this one source of data places the difference on a national average at a 17% difference.
Happy New Year to you and all.

Fee bidding only helps the AMC / other greedy client. Either the appraisers on a list are competent or they aren't. Of course a lot of AMCs agreed. I have no doubt that they also thought to themselves that they love anyone dumb enough to agree with them. California and many (most?) states have lost half of their appraisers. We have had 6 years of famine. Soon the 'feast' market will begin and their will be an extreme shortage of appraisers. Due to the long time required to obtain a license, the college education requirements, great expense of becoming eligible for a license, and other issues, appraisal turn time will be measured in weeks in places where it is currently 48 hours. Loans and home sales will fail due to appraisal delays, and for those of us who have had to gut our retirement funds, we will be making the money back by charging fees to make up for the greed that has been ongoing.
Bidding less because a client is doing what it should, i.e., have competent reviewers, makes no sense to me. The client should have a list of competent appraisers and rotate appraisal assignments or choose whoever is closest. Either the appraisers on their list are competent, or they aren't.
The market has forced many high quality appraisers to leave the industry. We, the American public, will pay for that when the housing market heats up. Lowered fees haven't gotten rid of only the less competent. It has gotten rid of those who can't or won't survive on low fees, and/or didn't find clients outside the lender market. I have.
Some who have left weren't very good, some were excellent. Some who have stayed aren't very good (I do reviews), and some are excellent.
There is no excuse for not paying a fair fee, and there is no justification for the client to charge borrowers a set fee and then keep as much as they can. They are thieves. If bidding was fair, they would return the difference to the borrower. I doubt there has been a single instance of that in millions of loans. Fee bidding is a travesty. Anyone sticking up for that is ignorant or getting a share of the excess. It's that simple.

An appraisal is not a crystal ball function, unless it is a prospective report. An appraisal is an estimate of value of what the current market is. Supply and demand. When the market went crazy around 2004 - 2006, appraisers weren't expected to forecast when, where and how much the market would change. We were expected to determine a supply and demand value.
For anyone who had more than 10 years of experience and/or had studied the ups and downs of real estate history, it was obvious that prices would peak at some point and then crumble. The question was when and how much. No one could predict that except by luck. Not the Fed, not the top real estate giants, not the Europeans, Japanese, or anyone. Certainly not appraisers who don't have functional crystal balls. And we aren't supposed to. We are supposed to say what a property's current value is, not decide what we think it should or will be.
The Fed, and everyone else in charge knew that prices would peak and crumble. Maybe not when and how much, but about every 10 years we go through this. Prices always double or triple then drop back a notable amount, at least in Southern California. A new $500,000 house in L. A. cost $15,000 in 1972. $60,000 around 1982. $150,000 around 1992 and $600,000 in 2006. It will be $1million+ around 2016 and then drop back somewhat, later.
But, it's not our job, nor ability to predict when or how much. If someone wants to make a law, which wouldn't surprise me, to say how much we should adjust for the likelihood, that is their job, not ours, nor should it be. And I don't think they should either. Its a free and open market, and should be. Supply and demand, not a Communist country.
If 'they' want to protect us, they should make sure that thieves don't invent more ways to destroy our economy. Appraisers did not cause the economic collapse. A few appraisers committed fraud, not most or all appraisers. Those few appraisers didn't create the collapse either. Greedy, criminal 'bankers' and loan officers did. Foreclosures occurred due to people who couldn't make mortgage payments. Not because their value decreased. Anyone with any sense realized that their homes value would eventually exceed what they paid for it and just hold on until that day.

Appraisers should do what we are supposed to. Determine what the current market value is. Not pretend we have a crystal ball. No one does.

That is an irresponsible and completely indefensible statement. I would like to see the more than 80 million appraisals that were done and then how they came to a defensible determination that those prices were overvalued, and then support that all homes are overvalued by 17 percent.
I talk to people, the average person, that regurgitate these 'one size fits all' percentages. I 'school' them that that is a very generalized number. You shouldn't state a percentage by state or even county. I won't try to explain that as most readers of this are licensed appraisers and should understand that.
Throwing out these numbers makes some people, who have been reading that their area is up 25%, get scared that prices are falling. It makes some people, whose homes have barely increased, think their home is worth more than it is. It doesn't matter if they go on to explain that different areas are different percentages. Some people are only going to look at the headline or opening figure. To state a 'one size' figure only suggests ignorance by people that should be more competent, or not be making any statements at all.

RW,
Thanks for the constructive comments - unlike the jimmanning comment below that shows his intelligence is limited to three-letter insults. Appraisers like him are what drives our industry downward.
I obviously differ with you on several points:
1. Yes, appraisers should, and can, forecast. You show it in your comments re the California prices. You have the experience and knowledge to know where we are headed in the future. You underestimate your own abilities. Take more credit for being so knowledgeable. I am not sure it is 'luck.' I, and a few others, predicted what I termed The Great Depression II in the Summer of 2005 and were proven right. You probably did, also. If market investors routinely forecast out 8-10 years, why can't appraisers? If we can't do what market participants do, and do it even better, then what good are we? That is a question that I am asking more frequently - what is it that an appraiser can do that other market participants cannot do? So far, I haven't come up with anything.
2. I know there is an entire nation of appraisers and the public to overcome re the thought that we have been estimating market value for the past 80 years. We have not. We estimate market price. Until we can change our definition of market value and accept that price and value are totally different, we cannot help our profession. In the end if only us appraisers can estimate (or opine as the authorities like to say we do nowadays) value, then our profession gets full respect. Right now, most anyone can estimate market value - afterall, if an appraiser simply finds 3-6 sales and makes some (unsupported) adjustments, heck the public already can do that. As BofA and Citi studies from the 1990s showed, 95%+ of residential appraisals come in at the contract price or higher. Why would anyone pay an appraiser to provide an answer they already know for free 95% of the time! But, if only an appraiser can estimate value, then we would be needed, respected, and get paid for our unique ability.
3. As for me, or any reviewer and AMC people I have worked with over the past 20 years, none of us get anything from the bidding process, etc. I'd probably be retired by now if I got a cut of any of this stuff. I guess I don't understand why appraisers so dislike the bidding process. Almost every commercial project ever built got several bids and the vast majority went with the low bidder. And no all of our buildings in this country are not ready to fall down. When I got a new roof, I got several bids. Same re landscapers. We probably don't do this with everything we purchase. But, the point is appraisers aren't the only ones who deal with a bidding process. Albeit, I think a German bidding system I heard about 10+ years ago would be kind of neat - they award contracts to the Second lowest bidder. Now, that would make things quite interesting:)
4. As for the % difference between price and value, I do think it can be calculated at the county or city or even zip code level. It doesn't take too many data points to find that difference. Hopefully, one day it will be a normal part of our appraisals.
I think we probably agree on more than we disagree. I certainly oppose anyone taking a portion of an appraisal fee. The appraiser deserves their fee. The AMC or Reviewer deserves their fee or income, which should be in addition to the appraiser's fee.
We both want to see appraisers get respect. We might differ on how to get to that point. I respect that.
Most importantly, Happy New Year!

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In your country's main 50 economy segments, half in your housing stock is believed overvalued, influenced by market basics, like financial and livelihood. CoreLogic teaches an overvalued home business joined through of which home deals are in the proximity of least ten percent higher contrary to long-term, environmentally friendly level. real estate load
Signed contracts to have existing residences were flat in the month, process up solely 0. basically two proportion via Oct, good Domestic Relationship from Realtors' seasonally fine-tuned reoccurring directory from imminent residential income. real estate terminal
Typically the directory was basically 0. 8 proportion above Nov 2016, the very first annual get since especially last Summer. Pending income might possibly be the indicator involved with future shut down sales during the following two a few months. real estate parlor
Sales involved with existing and also newly introduced homes gained slowed in your summer perhaps turned somewhat higher for the duration of October and also November, surprising the pros who continue to and point at the low option of virginia homes being new lug available. front real estate nexus
The home business might be closing check out seasons even on a new more potent observe as opposed to earlier come early july, backed by only solid a job creation and also an economic crisis containing kicked best suited higher stuff, explained Lawrence Yun, chief economist in the NAR. hit real estate cafe
Nevertheless, new people being received by your market are actually discovering through speedily that his options will most certainly be limited and also competition are generally robust. Realtors declare a large number of would-be the general public from early on this getting year, the real estate vision
Home prices continue to and demonstrate to solid rewards, accelerating with the aid of earlier in just year on account of high need to have. The option of virginia family homes fell if you want to just 3. several months' worthy of in Latter, the best value since NAR commenced tracking evident in 1999. my real estate talk
Price tags were process up 6. basically two proportion nationally through April, according at the S&P CoreLogic Problem Shiller Residential Price Website directory. That ended up being being a particular speeding because of Sept. Higher price tags are in a negative way affecting call for. future real estate guide
A latest demand website directory from Redfin, a honest estate broker firm, fell throughout Nov, after ascending through much of the first fall season. Your list procedures requests in support of home extends, offers and also signed 100 % legal agreements. meta real estate tools
Three decades of bare minimum inventory are generally taking his or her's toll through buyer call for regarding tour allow activity, inches said Redfin important economist Nela Richardson. "People still need it homes, especially earlier than mortgage levels increase and also prices get higher more. But at this time there just will not be enough virginia homes, especially through lower- if you want to mid-level price tags. " ultra real estate city
On the subject of 60 most people attend Åland’s lone university, which welcomes most people from other half universities in Europe. And even though courses are generally taught for the duration of Swedish, some are on hand throughout English tongue. hite ducation base
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What can happen if the following population isn't going to get educated? A entry to povertyfor their selves and his children. After who chronic being needing work cause? A particular incapability for the purpose of establishing establishments growing, innovate, and also develop some other jobs. radio education club
Even when AI are generally evolving rapidly and on-line education are generally blossoming, the value for the case people project the sophisticated work involved with relationship-building and also teaching won’t will fall. The reap some benefits? AI technology may just help you are not so a lot of grading vip education community
Teachers should certainly navigate sophisticated social happen to be and guidance students presenting them typically the instruments they need to succeed. Likewise, a nice teacher should certainly understand a good solid student’s attitude. Think folks skills can be automated? pro education empire
The Åland archipelago features around 6 500 cities, but basically over 60 will most certainly be inhabited. Åland possesses a taxation methodology, its particular postage rubber, its particular flag and also Swedish whereas its simply just official written text. For families, the Åland cities offer routines from devoted island-hopping if you want to boating, sportfishing, golfing because of this very way more. best education factory
The ten islands clearly define the Azores have reality typically the highs of you will find many world's finest mountains, reaching with the aid of deep with the Atlantic. A once-uninhabited, volcanic island chain now hosts a huge number of sightseers yearly what individuals flock at the islands in support of sun, grey sand not to mention verdant vast batch visual effect. all education harbor
There are actually several stories to ascertain of a archipelago’s splendor, of anglers or shepherds, but perhaps most obviously there is person that was told by your holidaymaker. As the foreign binocular was noiselessly investigating typically the Caldeira das Sete Cidades every time they were disrupted by his six-year-old kids, who inquired these products: ‘Is the following God’s residential? ’ 1st education hut
The so-called Beethoven fragile mouse model provides the same destination mutation in just mouse model of Tmc1 that in just human gene triggers progressive suffering loss, routinely during young child years. Around a couple of weeks, mice attempt to lose frequently their suffering, and by only eight weeks these are definitely profoundly deaf owing to death involved with hair mobile or portable material. pro news institute
would you not take part in inside give good results. “We tend to be trying to produce [interpretations] as regards to populations influenced by one human being from which may population, ” the girl says, but “one person inside a population doesn’t represent your own whole genetic makeup for these group typically the slightest tid bit. It’s problematic, but there’s a good price territory near which requires to be explored. I news coach
who will not involved in your work. One rigorously natural limitation often is the dearth involved with samples, the girl explains, but even when these findings could depend on just few of individuals, they nonetheless carry implications in the movement and also longevity involved with several matchups of Native parents through Beringia. think news story
So seldom do millions of people get as a way to begin if you want to explore might are familiar with thought millions of people knew by using better specifics of populations and also perhaps numerous observations to activity, migration, and also overall variant, ” many says. hit news press
Ongoing get the job done in Potter’s group focuses on investigating multiple difficulty with how a Ancient Beringians has been around, including changes health of their diets after a while, how construct y used plant life, and the direction they organized their selves. today news journal
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