Loan Risk at a Higher Level Than Is Conducive to Long-Run Market Stability

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

If you haven't checked out the new HousingRisk.org yet you really should. We thought we would highlight one of the recent posts by Ed Pinto of AEI. To read the article in its entirety you can find it HERE.

AEI experts report on risk ratings for federal agency mortgages securitized in January 2014, review trends for the NMRI series, and for the first time, release state-level Mortgage Risk Indices.

Click here to scroll through the February 2014 NMRI briefing presentation

Key findings:

  • The January National Mortgage Risk Index for home purchase loans (NMRI) shows that low-risk loans accounted for only 42.2% of home mortgages extended in January 2014, down from 45.4% in December 2013 and 46.4% in August 2013 (the starting date for this series). Loan risk is at a higher level than is conducive to long-run market stability. Despite frequent assertions that the national credit box is too tight, the facts indicate it is loose by historical standards for prudent lending and is getting looser.
  • The NMRI continued to climb to 11.8% in January 2014, rising from 10.8% in December. This jump was largely due to FHA increasing its January 2014 share to 33% from 28.2% in December.
  • NMRIs for Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac and FHA/Rural Housing Service (RHS) both reached series highs.
  • No discernible impact from Qualified Mortgage (QM) regulation as the percentage of loans with a debt-to-income ratio of greater than 43% reached 23.4%, a new series high.
  • By far the riskiest loan portfolios continue to be those guaranteed by FHA and RHS. The NMRI for FHA and RHS together increased from 22.22% in August 2013 (the earliest data available) to 23.74% in January 2013.

Listen to Stephen Oliner and Edward Pinto’s briefing call

To put the January level of 11.8% in perspective, the NMRI for loans originated in 1990, when prudent underwriting standards predominated, was about 6%. In contrast, the NMRI for the exceptionally risky 2007 vintage of loans was about 19%. Consequently, the January level indicates that housing risk is substantially higher today than in 1990, but does not approach the level in 2007 when credit standards were the loosest in many decades.

Risk levels at the Federal agencies have risen since August as a result of:

  • Increases in FHA’s share of loans
  • Increases in share of borrowers having FICO scores below 660 at FHA
  • Increases in share of loans having a debt ratio in excess of 43% at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, and
  • Increases in share of loans having a down payment of 5% or less at Fannie Mae

In January, half of agency loans had a down payment of 5% or less, nearly one-in-four agency loans had debt-to-income (DTI) ratio greater than 43%, and one-in-eight agency loans had a FICO score of less than 660. The new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s "qualified mortgage" regulations that took effect last month have not slowed this trend toward riskier mortgages, as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, and RHS are exempt from key provisions.

Insights from the state data:

  • Most states have a composite SMRI between 9.5% and 12.5%. Those at the extremes tend to have high or low concentrations of FHA/RHS loans.
  • Variation across states for Fannie/Freddie loans is limited. Most states have a state MRI (SMRI) between 5% and 6.5%. The "Sand States" (California, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada) which suffered the largest price declines during the housing bust, all have a below-average SMRI for Fannie/Freddie loans.
  • The FHA/RHS SMRI for every state is very high ― above 20%. "Sand States" are all near the top of the range.
  • SMRI for Fannie/Freddie loans increased in all but four states from Aug-Oct 2013 to Nov 2013-Jan 2014.
  • SMRI for FHA/RHS loans increased in all but two states from Aug-Oct 2013 to Nov 2013-Jan 2014.

California was highlighted as an example of a state with increasing mortgage risk in tandem with increasing house price risk. California represents 17% and 19% of the Fannie/Freddie and FHA home purchase loans respectively in the NMRI by dollar amount.

The NMRI measures the cumulative default rate under stress for a cohort of loans based on the performance of the 2007 vintage. An individual loan is defined as low-risk if it has a stressed default rate of less than 6%. Historical experience shows that having a substantial majority of loans meet this low-risk standard has been conducive to a stable housing market. As of January 2014, over 1.9 million Fannie/Freddie loans and over 350,000 FHA/RHS loans have been risk rated using the NMRI methodology.

You can find this and other articles from Ed Pinto at AEI.org or for more visit the new site HousingRisk.org.

Have any comments or would you like to submit content of your own? Email comments@appraisalbuzz.com

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